In a prediction market conducted by Infosurv and GMI, almost 80% of traders banked on Mitt Romney winning the South Carolina Primary on Saturday, January 21, 2012.
Atlanta, GA , January 20, 2012 – In an overwhelming vote of confidence, 79% of traders in a recent Infosurv prediction market think former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has the greatest chance of winning the upcoming South Carolina Primary. Infosurv, the leading prediction markets research firm, reports that the findings of its prediction market conducted on January 18th also align with recent political poll rankings. This prediction market follows the earlier successful prediction of Romney’s strong finish in Iowa more than 2 weeks ago.
Prediction market traders rallied heavily behind Romney when asked which candidate was most likely to win the South Carolina Primary this Saturday. “He has been a strong candidate since the beginning and continues to gain support,” one trader declares, “His campaign has been somewhat consistent and without personal crisis.”
Trailing second behind Romney, Newt Gingrich was the most polarizing of the candidates. Positive trader reviews assert that “his conservative roots and southern background will close the gap between Gingrich and Romney,” while those opposed to Gingrich have lost confidence in his ability to lead the Republican Party.
Infosurv adapted this virtual market design to predict the success of political candidates – proving that a representative general population sample can be just as effective as a targeted sample in determining election results. Recognized as one of the research industry’s most innovative new technologies, iCE (the Infosurv Concept Exchange) is a virtual online trading market, proven more accurate at predicting future outcomes than conventional surveys, polls, or individual experts. iCE markets give traders virtual currency to invest in the concepts, new products, or advertisements they feel will be most successful and pay out real cash bonuses if they select the market winner or outcome that actually occurs. Just as in real world markets, share prices fluctuate based on trader confidence. By observing how share prices move over time, the market makes very accurate predictions on the real world success of the concepts tested.
Infosurv partnered with GMI (Global Market Insite, Inc.), a leading provider of technology-enabled solutions for global market research, to collect responses from a nationwide random sample of 355 U.S. respondents. GMI’s demonstrated approach to scientific statistical sampling allows for a truly representative sample of the U.S. population. iCE traders responded to the South Carolina iCE market invitation on January 18th, 2012.
Infosurv is a full-service survey research firm based in Atlanta, Georgia, leading the Market Research industry in the development and implementation of prediction markets. Founded in 1998, Infosurv has grown to be a trusted research partner for hundreds of organizations around the world, including Fortune 500 Companies, small businesses, and government agencies. Infosurv has been recognized by Inc. Magazine as one of the 5000 fastest-growing private companies in the country for three consecutive years and recently placed Infosurv among the top 15 advertising and marketing companies in Georgia.
GMI (Global Market Insite, Inc.) provides access to the right people at the right time to deliver the right results, empowering researchers and marketers worldwide to generate reliable, consistent and actionable information that enhances their decision making capability. Founded in 1999 with global headquarters in Bellevue, WA, GMI has operations in America, Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit us online at www.gmi-mr.com or email us.