We’ve recently launched a new website www.icepredict.com with lots of great resources about prediction markets, the wisdom of crowds, and iCE. On the site you’ll find Frequently Asked Questions, a Product … Read More
Hacking the Wisdom of Crowds
In the computer world, hacking refers to coming up with an elegant and novel way of achieving something with software that subverts some previous constraint. In recent years, computer … Read More
When Are Crowds Unwise?
The wisdom of crowds theory has its fair share of skeptics, and with good reason. When we look around us, we see lots of examples of crowds acting unwise. Lynch … Read More
Prediction Market Outputs: Odds & Ends
If you survey the prediction market landscape, you’ll notice that the outputs that PM’s provide fall into one of two categories: odds & ends. By “odds” I’m referring to the … Read More
Crowdsourcing vs. Crowdassessing
Prospective clients interested in our iCE prediction market technology often ask whether it’s a crowdsourcing tool. My standard answer is “kinda.” The term crowdsourcing is defined on Wikipedia as: … Read More
The Expert Magnet
The Woodrow Wilson Center’s Science and Technology Innovation Program (STIP) recently announced that they’re creating a prediction market to forecast future events of interest to the scientists, such as who will … Read More
Enterprise Prediction Markets (EPM’s) vs. Public Prediction Markets (PPM’s)
Clients interested in using a prediction market for market research often ask us whether they should setup their market using internal employees or external consumers as traders. Since this is … Read More
Blindfolded Monkeys & Wisdom of the Stock Market
In the investing community, it’s common knowledge that most professionally managed mutual funds underperform the stock market overall. From an article in the Time magazine blog: Standard & Poor’s … Read More
How Prediction Markets Can Save Lives
I’m a TED Talk junkie. In case you’re not familiar with TED, it’s an annual event composed of 5-15 minute “talks” by some of the world’s leading thinkers. Notable past TED … Read More